[Morning Paper] Key Signals Released at the Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee; Minimum Purchase Amount for Tax Refunds Lowered to 200 yuan

Macro News

1. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 25 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping presided over the meeting. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to continuously consolidate the stable momentum of the real estate market and maintain the stability and vitality of the capital market. More proactive and effective macro policies should be implemented promptly, including RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. It is essential to increase the income of middle- and low-income groups and vigorously develop service consumption. A "Science and Technology Board" should be innovatively launched in the bond market, and the "AI+" initiative should be accelerated. For enterprises significantly affected by tariffs, the proportion of unemployment insurance fund refunds for job retention should be increased. Incremental reserve policies should be promptly introduced in response to changing circumstances, and unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments should be strengthened.

2. On the afternoon of April 25, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held its 20th collective study session on strengthening the development and regulation of artificial intelligence. General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping emphasized during the study that, in the face of the rapid evolution of the new generation of AI technology, it is necessary to fully leverage the advantages of the new system of mobilizing resources nationwide, adhere to self-reliance and self-improvement, highlight application-oriented approaches, and promote the healthy and orderly development of China's AI in a beneficial, safe, and equitable direction.

3. Premier of the State Council Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting on April 27, deciding to approve nuclear power projects such as the Sanmen Phase III project in Zhejiang. The meeting emphasized that safety must be ensured in nuclear power development without any compromise. The primary responsibilities of participating construction units and owner units should be solidified. Nuclear power units should be constructed and operated in accordance with the highest global safety standards. Efforts should be continuously made to strengthen the construction of safety regulatory capabilities and effectively ensure the safety of nuclear power.

4. The State Council Information Office is scheduled to hold a press conference at 10 a.m. today. Zhao Chenxin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Yu Jiadong, Deputy Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, Sheng Qiuping, Deputy Minister of Commerce, and Zou Lan, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, will introduce policy measures related to stabilizing employment, the economy, and promoting high-quality development.

5. The State Council has approved the establishment of comprehensive pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce in Hainan Province and 15 other cities (regions), including Qinhuangdao. Meanwhile, the comprehensive pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce established in Haikou, Sanya, and Alashankou have been revoked.

6. The 2025 National Conference on Responding to Trade Frictions was held in Beijing from April 24 to 25. The meeting pointed out that China's trade frictions have entered a high-intensity phase. Facing difficulties and challenges, it is necessary to remain confident, maintain determination, and adopt strategic approaches to foster new opportunities amid crises and open up new prospects amid changes. It is essential to enhance political awareness, adhere to a systematic perspective, strengthen bottom-line thinking and extreme-case thinking, focus on preventing and mitigating trade risks, and make new contributions to the high-quality development of trade.

7. It has been reported that CK Hutchison's sale of overseas ports will proceed as two separate transactions. A spokesperson for the State Administration for Market Regulation recently stated that China is highly concerned about the relevant transactions and will conduct reviews in accordance with the law. All parties to the transactions must not evade reviews in any way and must not implement concentration before obtaining approval; otherwise, they will bear legal responsibilities.

8. Huang Haihua, spokesperson and director of the Research Office of the Legislative Affairs Commission of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, stated at a press conference of the Legislative Affairs Commission of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on the 25th that the 2025 legislative work plan includes 14 legal bills scheduled for continued review and 23 legal bills scheduled for initial review. Among them, in terms of improving institutional mechanisms conducive to promoting high-quality development, laws such as the Promotion of the Private Economy Law, the National Development Planning Law, the Financial Law, the Financial Stability Law, and the Farmland Protection and Quality Improvement Law will be formulated.

9. In the first quarter, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide turned from a 3.3% year-on-year decline for the entire previous year to a 0.8% increase, reversing the trend of continuous decline in cumulative profits of enterprises since the third quarter of the previous year. In March, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a 0.3% decline in January-February to a 2.6% increase, with profits for the month showing improvement.

10. According to Ministry of Finance data, from January to March, the total operating revenue of state-owned enterprises was 19,845.16 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous year. The total profits of state-owned enterprises were 1,090.74 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. At the end of March, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises was 65.0%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year.

Industry News

1. The Ministry of Commerce and five other departments issued a notice on further optimizing the departure tax refund policy to expand inbound consumption. The notice mentions lowering the threshold for departure tax refunds. Overseas tourists who purchase tax-refundable goods worth 200 yuan or more on the same day at the same store and meet other relevant regulations can apply for departure tax refunds. The payment service for departure tax refunds has been optimized. The cash tax refund limit has been increased to 20,000 yuan.

2. In 2025, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued revised "Rules for the Review of Securities Issuance and Listing by Publicly Listed Firms." The main adjustments include: first, in accordance with the new "Company Law" and other regulations, changing "shareholders' meeting" to "shareholders' assembly" and deleting provisions related to supervisors and shareholding reductions; second, solidifying the responsibilities of intermediary institutions, strengthening on-site supervision and prevention of financial fraud, and clarifying the verification obligations of intermediary institutions; third, increasing penalties for violations, imposing heavier sanctions on financial fraud and other behaviors, extending the maximum period for intermediary institutions to be temporarily ineligible for document acceptance to five years, and extending the filing interval for sponsors to six months. The new regulations further strengthen strict supervision and maintain market order.

3. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has formulated the "Administrative Provisions on the Suspension and Exemption of Information Disclosure by Publicly Listed Firms," which will come into effect on July 1, 2025. The "Provisions" clarify two categories of exemptions: one is information that constitutes state secrets or may violate national confidentiality regulations or management requirements if disclosed publicly; the other is trade secrets or confidential business information.

4. The Ministry of Finance and the CSRC revised and issued the "Administrative Measures for the Record-Filing of Accounting Firms Engaged in Securities Service Business." The main revisions to the "Measures" include: improving record-filing requirements and strengthening guidance on the focus on practice quality; improving the management loop and strengthening the whole-process supervision of accounting firms engaged in securities service business.

5. The Ministry of Transport and ten other departments issued guidelines on promoting the integrated development of transportation and energy. The guidelines point out that by 2035, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles, new energy commercial heavy-duty trucks will be applied on a large scale, and a green fuel supply system for transportation will be basically established.

6. Recently, on the official website of the State Taxation Administration's 12366 tax service platform, the State Taxation Administration stated in response to a question that taxpayers who replace their existing home loans in accordance with the "Notice on Matters Related to Reducing Interest Rates on Existing First-Home Mortgages" can continue to enjoy the special additional deduction for home loan interest because the taxpayer's home remains the same before and after the replacement.

7. Informed sources revealed that Apple plans to shift all iPhone production for the US market to India as early as 2026. In 2024, Apple's global iPhone shipments were approximately 225.9 million units, a slight decrease of 1% from the previous year. The US market accounted for 28% of shipments, approximately 63.25 million units. This means that to achieve its goal, Apple needs to nearly double its production capacity in India next year.

8. The National Financial Regulatory Administration recently issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Strengthening the Supervision of Universal Life Insurance." Relevant department heads of the National Financial Regulatory Administration stated that insurance companies are allowed to adjust the minimum guaranteed interest rate for universal life insurance products when meeting corresponding constraints, especially during periods of declining interest rates, to effectively prevent interest rate spread loss risks by lowering the minimum guaranteed interest rate.

Company News

1. BYD's net profit in the first quarter was 9.15 billion yuan, up 100.4% year-on-year.

2. Gree Electric Appliances released its annual report, showing a 10.91% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024. It plans to distribute a cash dividend of 20 yuan for every 10 shares.

3. CATL announced that it has repurchased 1.0753 million shares of the company for the first time.

5. JD.com announced that it will recruit 100,000 full-time riders in the next three months.

6. China Rare Earth released its first-quarter report, showing a net profit of 72.62 million yuan in the first quarter, turning from a loss year-on-year.

7. *ST Renle issued a revised performance forecast announcement, estimating that its net assets at the end of 2024 will be revised to -407 million yuan to -392 million yuan. The company's shares may be delisted.

8. *ST Gongzhi announced that its shares may be delisted and will be suspended from trading starting today.

9. Wuliangye Yibin announced that its net profit in 2024 increased by 5.44% year-on-year, and it plans to distribute a dividend of 31.69 yuan for every 10 shares. Its net profit in the first quarter was 14.86 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year.

10. Yunji Group announced that it has signed a general contracting contract worth approximately 2.926 billion yuan for a bauxite project in Guinea, accounting for approximately 190.53% of the company's audited operating revenue in 2024.

11. Luzhou Laojiao released its annual report, showing a 1.71% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024. It plans to distribute a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan for every 10 shares.

12. Xingguang shares announced that its stock trading will be subject to delisting risk warnings.

13. Gujinggong Liquor released its annual report, showing a 20.22% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024. It plans to distribute a dividend of 50 yuan for every 10 shares.

14. TISCO Stainless Steel released its first-quarter report, showing a 5507% year-on-year increase in net profit in the first quarter.

15. Zhenghe Ecology announced that it has signed a 2 billion yuan strategic cooperation agreement with Yanshan Cultural Tourism Group.

16. Haiyuan Composite Materials announced that its shares will be subject to delisting risk warnings and will be suspended from trading for one day.

17. Chuandazhisheng announced that its shares will be subject to delisting risk warnings, and its stock abbreviation will be changed to "*ST Zhisheng."

18. Tonghua Dongbao announced a correction to its 2024 performance forecast, estimating a net loss of 42.72 million yuan.

19. Songfa shares announced that its shares will be subject to delisting risk warnings, and its stock abbreviation will be changed to *ST Songfa.

Global Markets

1. US President Trump stated that he is unlikely to approve another 90-day tariff suspension. Trump told reporters traveling with him on Air Force One, "I hope to reach trade agreements with a series of countries."

2. The latest Financial Stability Report released by the US Fed last Friday showed that rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty, and the sustainability of US debt top the list of potential risks to the US financial system. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion in the November report. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, a proportion that has increased from the same period last year.

3. The three major US stock indices closed higher collectively last Friday, with the Dow up 0.05%, the Nasdaq up 1.26%, and the S&P 500 up 0.74%. For the week, the Dow gained 2.48%, the Nasdaq rose 6.73%, and the S&P 500 increased 4.59%.

Investment Opportunities Reference

1. Bookings increase by over 100% year-on-year, and the heat of the Labour Day holiday travel market continues to rise

As the Labour Day holiday approaches, the heat of the travel market continues to rise. Since this week, there has been a significant increase in online hotel searches and flight ticket searches, marking the arrival of the booking peak for the Labour Day holiday. Data shows that as of now, the number of bookings for domestic travel during the Labour Day holiday has increased by over 100% compared to the same period last year. Among them, the booking increases for products such as self-drive tours, independent travel, and package tours are particularly significant. In addition, the core businesses of online travel platforms, such as hotels and tickets, have increased by over 70%. Especially the ultra-long holiday mode of "taking 4 days off for an 11-day holiday" has further promoted the booking of long-distance travel.

Kaiyuan Securities stated that the tourism consumption during the Labour Day holiday exhibits three characteristics: "rapid growth in long-distance travel, two-way warming in cross-border travel, and a comeback in county-level tourism." The tourism consumption in sinking markets contributes structural increments, and the beta of the tourism market continues.Deng Lijun, Chief Strategy Analyst at Huajin Securities, stated that driven by holiday consumption and anticipated improvement in residents' income, coupled with the issuance of consumption vouchers and frequent local consumption promotion activities, the consumption potential of the food and beverage industry is expected to be continuously unleashed in the near term. The upcoming May Day holiday is expected to boost orders in railway and civil aviation businesses. If passenger flow remains high during the holiday, industries such as tourism, hotels, and catering are likely to benefit significantly.

2. New-Generation Low-Altitude Information Infrastructure, Entering the Stage of Validation and Commercial Exploration

The Shenzhen Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China published an article titled "Striving to Lead and Pioneer in Promoting New-Type Industrialization" in the "New-Type Industrialization" release. The article emphasized improving the digital infrastructure and service system, increasing investment in new infrastructure such as digital infrastructure, making moderately advanced layouts, accelerating the construction of low-altitude intelligent integrated infrastructure and low-altitude communication networks with integrated sensing, vigorously implementing industrial software research and application promotion actions, building a batch of standard testing and validation service platforms, consolidating the digital foundation of cities, and fostering the foundation for industrial development.

Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that as a new-generation low-altitude information infrastructure, 5G-A integrated sensing has entered the stage of technical validation and commercial exploration. The development of the low-altitude industry is not limited to low-altitude monitoring systems but also faces challenges in communication and navigation capabilities. Due to the height limitations of traditional base stations, effective low-altitude communication cannot be achieved. With the increasing frequency of low-altitude activities and the demand for high-density flights, navigation modes also need to become more digitalized and refined. Systematic solutions to communication, sensing, and navigation issues rely on 5G-A integrated sensing, which offers significant cost-effectiveness. Currently, the three major operators have conducted 5G-A validation and large-scale trials across the country. Over 300 cities nationwide have initiated the latest 5G-A network deployments, aiming to build the world's largest low-altitude communication network.

3. Special Action for Facilitating Cross-Border Trade Launched in Beijing

The Special Action for Facilitating Cross-Border Trade was launched in Beijing on April 24, with Vice Premier He Lifeng attending the deployment meeting and delivering a speech. He emphasized the need to thoroughly implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the State Council's work deployment, fully recognize the importance of facilitating cross-border trade, unswervingly expand opening-up, win development initiatives through open cooperation, and build a new system of a higher-level open economy. On the same day, Wuhan City issued the "2025 Wuhan Measures to Promote Cross-Border Trade Facilitation," introducing 21 specific measures across six major areas, including improving customs clearance efficiency and deepening regulatory reforms.

Bonded warehouses are a special type of storage space that allows importers to store goods in specially licensed warehouses near ports until they are sold to US end-users, at which point customs clearance and duty payment are completed. Generally, goods can be stored in bonded warehouses for up to five years. Institutions believe that for importers, the uncertainty of trade policies greatly increases the appeal of such warehouses. If Trump reverses tariffs, businesses can seize the fleeting window to quickly complete customs clearance. Conversely, if tariffs remain in effect, companies can extract inventory in small batches over an extended period, spreading the impact of tariffs over a longer cycle, thereby retaining as much flexibility as possible during a downturn in the US consumer market.

4. The Development of AI Agents Opens a New Paradigm for Human-Machine Collaboration

According to industry media reports, Butterfly Effect, a Chinese startup behind the general-purpose AI agent ManusAI, recently completed a $75 million funding round. This round was led by the renowned US venture capital firm Benchmark and also attracted participation from existing investors. According to insiders, this round of funding has propelled Butterfly Effect's valuation to nearly $500 million, a fourfold increase from before.

Guosen Securities stated that the development of agents has opened a new paradigm for human-machine collaboration, providing new development ideas for AI applications. In the future, model capabilities will continue to improve, and agents in various fields will become carriers for models to reach end-users. The subsequent development of AI applications remains highly promising. According to reports by McKinsey and others, driven by diversified demand, the AI agent market is experiencing explosive growth. The global AI agent market size in 2024 is approximately $5.1 billion and is expected to surge to $47.1 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 44.8%.